Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. After all its our back yard. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. There ya go. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Your email address will not be published. At any rate Australia is in trouble. New York: Free Press, 1992. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. (including Australia). Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Historical Statistics. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. What am I missing? And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. This is the real war. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. By Alan Dupont. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. !! On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. Something went wrong, please try again later. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. Nuh still something wrong. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. But is it? As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. Taiwanese . And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. God help our descendents. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. Jacqui Lambie!! Another Century of War? The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. 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